Pfizer and the ‘Vanguard of the RNA Vaccine Hunt’

It’s not a bold-sentence recommendation, and it’s based on an interview conducted by a journalist for a different media outlet.

It’s Jon Markman, writing in the Aug. 10 issue of Pivotal Point:

Gates suggests Moderna Inc. (Nasdaq: MRNA, Rated “D”) and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE, Rated “C+”) are at the vanguard of the RNA vaccine hunt.

Still, it echoes through the weeks — which, I imagine you’ll grant, especially in the wake of that last interminable Tuesday, have passed like years — given Monday’s news of a “more than 90% effective” vaccine against COVID-19.

Here’s Bloomberg on the big announcement: “A vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE protects most people from COVID-19, according to a study whose early findings sent stock prices surging and were hailed by the top U.S. infectious-disease specialist as ‘extraordinary.’”

The “Gates” of whom Jon wrote is, of course, Bill Gates; the headline then was “Gates Places Bets on COVID-19 Vaccine”:

Bill Gates says most COVID-19 tests are complete garbage, but he’s optimistic about vaccines and treatments that should end the threat in United States by the end of 2021.

That’s the key takeaway from an Aug. 8 Wired interview. Gates, who co-founded Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT, Rated “B”), now devotes his time and money to world health, which makes him uniquely qualified to opine what companies are doing the best work.

Gates is clearly smart. Long ago, he was the architect of software that still powers most of the world’s personal computers.

He’s also really good at predicting the future.

The “end of 2021” timeline is sound, too. Bloomberg’s solid review of the facts about Pfizer’s and BioNTech’s vaccine includes this key point: “The companies have said they should be able to produce 1.3 billion doses — enough to vaccinate 650 million people — by the end of 2021. About 50 million doses are expected to be available in 2020.”

This is clearly good news, and the market is enjoying a historic bounce because of it. It’s a coming to fruition of what Jon discussed as he named Pfizer:

The outlook is also bright for some vaccine makers and drug treatment firms.

One of the positives of COVID-19, according to Gates, is how quickly innovators have stepped up. The pipeline for new vaccines and therapeutics is extremely impressive. For rich countries like the United States, getting these products to the market should get the virus well under control by the end of 2021. The rest of the world may suffer with the novel coronavirus for another year.

The discrepancy is the best vaccine candidates use new technologies that are hard to scale up. These RNA vaccines teach our immune systems to eliminate the virus before it takes over our bodies. The science is well explained in this short video It’s a cool a concept that seems to be working well in trials.

Other firms are further behind, but they’re making good progress with more traditional vaccines. Like the common flu vaccine, they use killed or weakened versions of the virus to prepare our immune system for future COVID-19 exposure. The benefit of this approach is that drug makers know how to scale up production quickly, meaning lots of doses for a relatively modest investment. It’s the perfect solution for developing countries.

Gates suggests Moderna Inc. (Nasdaq: MRNA, Rated “D”) and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE, Rated “C+”) are at the vanguard of the RNA vaccine hunt. More traditional vaccines are likely coming first from AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN, Rated “B”) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ, Rated “C+”).

And while scientists still don’t know for sure how well any of these vaccines will work for the elderly or at preventing the longer-term side effects, Gates says the early phase trials show that COVID-19 is clearly vaccine preventable.

Well, now we know all about Pfizer’s and BioNTech’s success.

You probably heard of it first from Bill Gates via Jon Markman.

Best wishes,

David Dittman