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| By Juan Villaverde |
Last week, I was on the edge of my seat.
If Bitcoin (BTC, “A”) didn’t stay near the psychologically important $100,000 mark, I was concerned about what that might mean for the bull market.
Today, it traded above $101,500. So even with the recent pullback, the uptrend remains in force.
And the path to above the next milestone — Bitcoin above $104,000 — is still within reach.
Why $104,000?
That’s the Dec. 5 high. My Timing Model highlighted that as crucial, because it was Bitcoin’s first ever break into six-digit territory.
Now, this level stands as overhead resistance.
Bitcoin may be taking a breather right here. But it rarely makes an 80-day-cycle top after weeks of sideways consolidation.
For that reason alone, this sideways slowdown is likely to resolve with Bitcoin breaking $104,000 with conviction.
There’s another reason why I expect an upward break.
That’s because the current price action is eerily similar to Bitcoin’s breakout above $30,000 just last year.
In last year’s fourth quarter,Bitcoin broke above the green horizontal line on Oct. 23 (a 320-day-cycle top).
From there, it rallied a few weeks. Then it consolidated sideways.
And then, exploded higher, as shown in the upper right side of the above chart.
Interestingly, altcoins also rallied hard during this period, only to correct sharply in the latter half of November 2023 — unlike Bitcoin, which mostly moved sideways.
It seems like history may be repeating.
Where do we go from here? Up!
The next 80-day-cycle high will likely occur in January.
Similar to last year’s end-of-year rally, my Timing Model says Bitcoin’s next significant cycle will likely occur in January, not now.
The Dec. 5 low will remain critical.
Not just because this was Bitcoin’s first break above $100,000. But also, because what came next was an abrupt crash back down to $92,000 — amid massive liquidations of crypto derivatives.
As such, the $92,000 low from Dec. 5 must hold during any future corrections. If Bitcoin loses the $92,000 level, we’d likely be looking at an 80-day cycle that topped out on Dec. 5. And a correction that could last into the New Year.
This isn’t my base case, but it’s something to watch.
It’s clear to me the crypto bull market’s still raging. See the black line in the chart above? That’s the level Bitcoin needs to fall below for my Timing Model to call an end to the bull market.
This indicator currently sits around $65,000. Happily, Bitcoin is trading far above this level.
As long as it stays there, the bull market remains in force. Occasional corrections notwithstanding, of course.
Bottom line: This rally is young, and it’s still got room to run. The next 90 days should be particularly interesting to watch.
Especially with three unstoppable bullish forces coming together in January 2025:
- The return of Donald Trump to the White House, who promises to lead the most pro-crypto administration in history, and even establish a national Bitcoin reserve …
- The tidal wave of capital flowing into Bitcoin ETFs … driving up Bitcoin’s price and lifting the whole crypto market with it … plus more crypto ETFs coming soon.
- The convergence of the two biggest tech megatrends of our time: Cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence (AI).
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Best,
Juan Villaverde
